Themes
Every economic era is defined by its scarce factor of production. Land in the 19th century, labor in the 20th, compute in the 21st. The supply, location, and ownership of compute set the upper bound on what intelligence can be built.
Cognition is now an electrical load. The ceiling on intelligence is the ceiling on power delivered to the substrate that runs it, and that ceiling is set by generation capacity and grid equipment with lead times measured in years, not quarters.
Intelligence has been repriced from commercial technology to national capability. States are making capital allocation decisions that are irrational at the firm level and rational at the level of the state, recreating a dual-use industrial base with consequences that propagate for a decade.
The cashflow models that price public equities assume scarce human cognition. When cognition becomes a commodity, those models stop working in ways that are not yet priced. We hold positions whose value survives that transition, and short positions whose moats do not.
The buildout is bottlenecked by molecules before it is bottlenecked by capital. Copper, rare earths, gallium, and nuclear fuel move on geological supply curves, while compute capex moves on quarterly ones. The mismatch is the trade.
Discovery loops in specific domains are compressing from years to months. Protein structure, materials candidates, and reaction pathways that took human laboratories a decade are being generated and tested in cycles short enough to reprice the industries built on slow R&D.
Cognition is leaving the screen. The cost and capability curves for general-purpose embodiment are crossing in laboratory deployments now and factory deployments shortly after. The labor categories that assumed physical work was the safe ground are the ones repricing.
