Fundamental research on the forces that move markets and economies.
Our Mission
Diffusion Capital's mission is to develop a fundamental, cause-and-effect understanding of how markets, technology and the physical economy interact — and to translate that understanding into models, research and tools that make second- and third-order consequences visible before they are priced. We work from primary sources and in real units, tracing each link in a chain back to the disclosure it came from and stating plainly how much confidence it carries.
Themes
The areas where we are building that understanding — the companies, infrastructure, policy shifts and capital flows that determine how value moves through the economy.
Compute as the scarce resource
Chips, clusters, networks, and data centers that turn model progress into usable capability.
Power for intelligence
Grid connections, transformers, cooling, and generation capacity for the AI buildout.
Capital after cognitive abundance
Margins, moats, and revenue pools as cognitive work becomes cheaper and more available.
Domestic compute, defense systems, secure supply chains, and dual-use infrastructure.
Sovereign AI and security
Orders of Effect
An event carries no information about its own consequences. Those depend on the structure it lands in, and that structure has to exist as a model before the event arrives, not be reconstructed after it.
First Order
The company that reported, and the number it reported.
Second Order
Its suppliers, customers and the contracts between them.
Third Order
The power, materials and capacity those relationships depend on.
Fourth Order
The rates, fiscal position and capital flows that reprice all of it.
Second- and third-order consequences, made visible.